COVID-19 has brought the world economy to a near-standstill and caused the fastest drop in financial markets since the Great Depression. Many experts believe that in 12 months’ time when things might seem to normalize, normal is going to be very different from what it was 12 months ago. Hopes of a quick recovery are fading, and the world economy is bracing for a slow and potentially prolonged recovery.
United States COVID-19 Negative Impact
‘A tale of 2 recessions’: As rich Americans get richer, the bottom half struggles 09-07-2020 (html) – POLITICO. The trend is on track to exacerbate dramatic wealth and income gaps in the U.S., where divides are already wider than any other nation in the G-7. The path toward economic recovery in the U.S. has become sharply divided, with wealthier Americans earning and saving at record levels while the poorest struggle to pay their bills and put food on the table.
US budget deficit hits record $3 trillion through 11 months 09-11-2020 (html) | Detroit News.
Fauci warns that US needs to be prepared to ‘hunker down’ for fall, winter o9-o9-2020 (html) | Fox News. Fauci said it is wise not to underestimate a pandemic. “We’ve been through this before,” he told a panel of doctors from Harvard Medical School, according to the Hill. “Don’t ever, ever underestimate the potential of the pandemic. And don’t try to look at the rosy side of things.”
The Easy Part of The Economic Recovery Might Be Over 09-04-2020 (html) | FiveThirtyEight. There are a bunch of clues in this month’s labor report that the growth we’re seeing now isn’t as robust as it looks, and that it probably isn’t sustainable without a dramatic change in public health conditions.
Zoom Towns And The New Housing Market For The 2 Americas 09-08-2020 (html) : Planet Money : NPR.
- As of April, a record-breaking 32 million American adults were living with their parents or grandparents.
- Almost 30 million Americans are currently receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits.
Lots of Detroit adults are living at home with parents, new data shows 09-08-2020 (html) | News Hits | Metrotimes.
Ford severance packages for salaried workers targets 1,400 in U.S. 09-08-2020 (html) | Detroit Free Press.
Fact Check of Donald Trump’s Claim on Employment in the US | Donald Trump Says 10.6 Million Jobs Added in 4 Months – Facts Blot Rosy Picture 09-08-2020 (html) | The Quint. Reports suggest he may actually have presided over the worst jobs creation track record since World War II in the US history. In fact, the unemployment numbers are close to those around the post 2008 recession numbers. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate isn’t doing so well in the US either. According to the Labour Department’s August data, the unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent in August, but despite a decline for four consecutive months, the rate is still 4.9 percentage points higher than in February.
Child care crisis pushes US mothers out of the labor force 09-05-2020 (html) | Detroit News.
Coronavirus model projects U.S. deaths will surpass 400,000 by end of year 09-05-2020 (html) – CBS News.
Fed’s Powell: Jobless Rate Better Than Expected; Recovery To Take A Long Time 090-04-2020 (html) : NPR
Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 09-04-2020 (html) | CNBC.
US coronavirus: Death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next four months 09-04-2020 (html) – CNN.
Nevada lab confirms 1st coronavirus reinfection in the US 08-28-2020 (html) – ABC News. 1st documented COVID-19 reinfection identified in the US. A 25-year-old from Nevada tested positive twice.
U.S. Debt Set to Surge to All-Time High : Coronavirus Live Updates 09-02-2020 (html) : NPR. U.S. To Owe More Than The Size Of Its Economy For The 1st Time In 75 Years.
Auto expert: ‘About 2 years’ for sales rebound to pre-pandemic level 09-02-2020 (html) | Detroit Free Press.
Fed could be locked into zero rates for five years, or even longer 09-01-2020 (html) | CNBC.
Ford offers buyouts as it aims to cut white-collar workers by 1,400 09-02-2020 (html) | CNBC.
ADP report August 2020: Private payrolls grow by 428,000 but miss expectations 09-02-2020 (html) | CNBC.
United Airlines to furlough over 16,000 employees in October 09-02-2020 (html) | Fox Business.
The U.S. dollar could be in a decade-long decline, analysts say 09-01-2020 (html) | CNBC.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance to not test asymptomatic people is ‘unfortunate,’ FDA Commissioner Gottlieb says 08-30-2020 (html) | CNBC.
25% of U.S. malls are set to shut within 5 years. What comes next? 08-27-2020 (html) | CNBC. Coresight Research estimates 25% of America’s roughly 1,000 malls will close over the next three to five years. The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated a demise that was already underway.
A case of coronavirus reinfection shows the complexities of the pandemic 08-29-2020 (html) – The Verge.
Weekly jobless claims totaled 1M last week, in-line with expectations 08-27-2020 (html) | Fox Business. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expected 1M new claims.
America Never Learns the Limits of Bootstrapping 08-21-2020 (html) – The Atlantic. Trying to replace the government with personal initiative requires an impossible amount of energy.
Unemployment: Americans struggle with delayed $300 jobless aid, 08-25-2020 (html) | USA Today. ‘We shouldn’t have to beg‘: Americans struggle without unemployment aid as Congress stalls on extending benefits. Stocks are back at records. But not everyone is feeling the recovery as millions of out-of-work Americans suffer.
U.S. consumer confidence at six-year low; underscores concerns about economic recovery, 08-25-2020 (html) – Reuters.
US consumer confidence falls in August to lowest in 6 years, 08-25-2020 (html) | AP News.
Consumer confidence plunges to six-year low, 08-25-2020 (html) | TheHill.
Airlines to shed tens of thousands of workers as federal pandemic aid expires, 08-25-2020 (html) – CBS News. The massive cuts are not entirely unexpected. Major airlines weeks ago warned they’d have to furlough more than 80,000 pilots, flight attendants and other airline workers once the $25 billion in government aid runs out at the end of September.
Delta set to furlough over 1,900 pilots in October, 08-24-2020 (html) – Reuters.
American Airlines to lay off 17,500 employees due to COVID-19 slump, 08-25-2020 (html) | USA Today. ‘The hardest message’: American Airlines to lay off 17,500 front-line workers due to coronavirus travel slump.
American Airlines is cutting 19,000 jobs when federal aid expires in October, 08-25-2020 (html) | CNBC. American Airlines will have 40,000 fewer employees on October 1, 2020.
Fed policymakers say pickup in infections slowing U.S. economic recovery, August 5, 2020 (html) – Reuters.
US citizenship agency drops plan to furlough 70% of workers, 08-25-2020 (html) | Detroit News. The agency had warned that without $1.2 billion in emergency funding from Congress, it would have been forced to furlough roughly 70% of its workforce. The agency, which shuttered operations for more than two months, said COVID-19 caused its revenue to decline by half.
Evictions are expected to skyrocket as protections expire, August 20, 2020 (html) | CNBC. Many states that paused their own proceedings have now allowed them to resume. Since July 15, eviction moratoriums have lapsed in Michigan, Maryland, Maine and Indiana. A record number of people could find themselves without a home during the pandemic.
We’ll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say, August 24, 2020 (html) – CNN. New York (CNN Business) America remains in a deep downturn and is running a serious risk of a worsening recession that will last at least another year, economists warned Monday.
Virus surge makes US weak link in global economic recovery, 08-11-2020 (html) – ABC News. The United States’ fumbling response to the pandemic and its dithering over a new aid package is casting doubt on its economic prospects and making it one of the chief risks to a global rebound. US does not dominate global commerce like it did 20 years ago, America is still by far the biggest economy – accounting for 22% of total economic output, versus 14% for No. 2 China, according to the World Bank.
Expired Unemployment Costs Economy Billions, But Some States Reject Trump Aid, August 19, 2020 (html) : NPR. The U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) Unemployment Rates for States (html) show Michigan hovering around 14% or 46thplace, looks like budget trouble for the near and medium term thru 2021.
The coronavirus recession is over for the rich, but the working class is far from recovered, August 13, 2020 (html) – The Washington Post.
Long after a Covid-19 infection, mental and neurological effects smolder, August 12, 2020 (html) | STAT. Early on, patients with both mild and severe Covid-19 say they can’t breathe. Now, after recovering from the infection, some of them say they can’t think. Even people who were never sick enough to go to a hospital, much less lie in an ICU bed with a ventilator, report feeling something as ill-defined as “Covid fog” or as frightening as numbed limbs. They’re unable to carry on with their lives, exhausted by crossing the street, fumbling for words, or laid low by depression, anxiety, or PTSD.
Boeing offers second voluntary layoff package to employees, August 17, 2020 (html) | CNBC. The offers will be extended to employees in the commercial airplanes division, services division and corporate offices.
COVID-19 forces some U.S. schools to close, as new cases remain high in most states, August 17, 2020 (html) – Reuters. Almost as quickly as they welcomed students back, some U.S. schools are closing again due to outbreaks of COVID-19, the latest challenge as the nation tries to reopen while the level of new cases per day remains high in most states.
As U.S. homebuilder confidence matches record high, mortgage delinquencies rise, August 17, 2020 (html) – Reuters. A growing number of home owners are falling behind on their mortgages with tens of millions still out of work and growing signs that the labor market recovery is softening.
As Colleges Move Classes Online, Families Rebel Against the Cost, August 15, 2020 (html) – The New York Times.
When furloughs become layoffs during pandemic, Saturday August, 15 2020 (html) | CNBC. ‘It’s nerve-racking’ — Millions of Americans are still furloughed and unsure when they will return to work.
Unemployment benefits: More than half of Americans fear job losses, August 7, 2020 (html) | USA Today. ‘I’m too old to find a new career’: More than half of Americans fear job losses.
Global COVID-19 Negative Impact
France in huge coronavirus recovery plan focusing on green energy 09-03-2020 (html) – BBC News.
France reveals fresh stimulus worth 100 billion euros — almost 4% of its GDP and bigger than any other European economy 09-03-2020 (html) | Markets Insider.
Australia in first recession for nearly 30 years 09-02-2020 (html) – BBC News.
The economy – Mass unemployment threatens Britain 08-22-2020 (html) | Britain | The Economist. The country is ill-prepared.
Social Security Programs Throughout the World (html).
Pensions at a Glance 2019 – OECD and G20 Indicators (html) – en – OECD.
Cases of COVID-19 reinfection in Netherlands, Belgium, national broadcaster reports, 08-25-2020 (html) | NBC News.
First Documented Coronavirus Reinfection Reported in Hong Kong, 08-25-2020 (html) – The New York Times. The patient did mount an immune response to the new infection, however, and did not experience symptoms.
Two European cases of coronavirus re-infection reported, 08-25-2020 (html) | TheHill.
What the Hong Kong Covid-19 reinfection case tells us about coronavirus immunity, 08-24-2020 (html) – Vox. You can get reinfected with Covid-19 but still have immunity. Let’s explain. A 33-year-old man was confirmed to be reinfected with Covid-19. This likely isn’t as bad as it sounds.
Google News “COVID-19 Reinfections” 08-25-2020 (html) – Overview
Germany’s record contraction in Q2 slightly less than feared, 08-25-2020 (html) | AP News. BERLIN (AP) — The German economy, Europe’s biggest, shrank by slightly less than originally estimated during the second quarter, the country’s official statistics agency said Tuesday — though the 9.7% drop was still easily the worst on record.
Europe Tried to Limit Mass Layoffs, but the Cuts Are Coming Anyway, August 24, 2020 (html) – The New York Times. PARIS — At BP, 10,000 jobs. At Lufthansa, 22,000. At Renault, 14,600. When European countries ordered businesses to shutter and employees to stay home as the coronavirus spread, governments took radical steps to shield workers from the prospect of mass joblessness, extending billions to businesses to keep people employed. The layoffs are coming anyway.
Maersk earnings Q2 2020, August 19, 2020 (html) | CNBC. World’s largest shipping firm says demand will ‘significantly decline’ this year
Rolls-Royce to close its Prince George, Virginia plant, cut 280 jobs, August 17, 2020 (html) | USA Today. British manufacturer cites economic blowback from pandemic as main reason facility will shut its doors.
PwC Expects Majority of U.K. Staff to Work Remotely After Virus, August 16, 2020 (html) – Bloomberg.
Previous Global COVID-19 Negative Impact
It seems that everyone has gone through the initial panic phase, over the next several months everyone is going to see a lot of economic data, and this data invariably will be shockingly disastrous.
WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard (html).
Global coronavirus cases surpass 5 million, Johns Hopkins data shows (html). New coronavirus cases across the world jump by the most in a single day, WHO says (html). Global coronavirus cases surpass 5 million (html) | Fox News. Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard (html).
Economic figures show grim toll in Europe and US from virus (html) – This is the saddest day for the global economy we have ever seen in the 50 years that economists at High Frequency Economics have been following the data, they wrote in a report. Even then, the statistics do not capture the enormity of the crisis. The quarterly figures cover January through March, and many of the lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. were not imposed until March — the second half of March in a multitude of places in the United States.
Global Pandemic shows contrasts between US, European safety nets (html) – The American welfare system is less generous and a recession can be much harsher on U.S. workers. In downturns, U.S. employees can lose their health insurance if they lose their job and there’s also a greater risk of losing one’s home through foreclosure. The U.S. tends to rank below average on measures of social support among the 37 countries of the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation, whose members are mostly developed democracies.
The U.S. came last in people living in relative poverty (html), meaning living on half the median income or less, with 17.8%. Countries like Iceland, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Finland have less than 6%. Nearly half of Americans receive health insurance through their employers (html), while another 34% get benefits through the government programs Medicare and Medicaid. Separately, 6% are insured individually and 9% in 2018 had no insurance at all. In the United States, Social Security contributions amounted to 6% of GDP in 2018, according to the OECD (html). In France it was almost three times higher, at 16% of annual GDP, while in Germany it was just over 14%.
- German factory orders plunge, portending lean times ahead (html) – ABC News.
- A Mile-Long Line for Free Food in Geneva Switzerland, One of World’s Richest Cities (html) – The New York Times.
- Coronavirus: Aviation power plant producer Rolls-Royce to cut 9,000 jobs amid virus crisis (html) – BBC News – Rolls-Royce has said it will cut 9,000 jobs and warned it will take “several years” for the airline industry to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
- Britain’s Aviation power plant producer Rolls-Royce said on Wednesday it would cut at least 9,000 jobs from its global staff of 52,000 and could shut factories to adapt to the much smaller aviation market that will emerge from the coronavirus pandemic (html) | Reuters.
- Australia Faces ‘Unprecedented’ Economic Hit From Coronavirus: RBA Minutes (html) | Investing News | US News.
- Japan’s economy slips into recession amid pandemic (html) – UPI.com.
- UK jobless claims surge by record amount as pandemic hits (html) | AP News. UK jobless claims rise by 70% in April to 2.1 million (html) | CNBC.
- COVID-19 at least 10 times deadlier than typical flu, analysis finds (html) – UPI.com.
- ‘This Virus May Never Go Away,’ WHO Says (html) | World News | US News.
- Premarket stocks: Germany falls into recession – (html) (html) – Europe’s top three economies, Germany, France, Italy, are now in recession. The real shock is still to come.
- Lloyd’s of London: Coronavirus will be largest loss on record for insurers worldwide (html)
- International Monetary Fund (IMF) head says half of all countries have asked IMF for bailout (html).
- Bank of England projects worst UK economic slump since 1706 (html).
- Coronavirus Update: EU Faces ‘Recession Of Historic Proportions,’ Forecast Warns (html).
- EU forecasts ‘recession of historic proportions’ this year (html).
- Canada loses record 2 million jobs, Ottawa extends costly wage subsidy program (html).
United States (US) COVID-19 Negative Impact
The United States, one of the hardest-hit nations, accounts for 31% of the more than 5 million global coronavirus cases with more than 1.6 million confirmed, according to the new Johns Hopkins University United States COVID-19 Dashboard (html). Record numbers of people have died globally; the U.S. death toll is rapidly increasing as well.
US coronavirus: The CDC issued a dire warning for the fall, August 13, 2020 (html) – CNN. The United States needs to get control of Covid-19 and carefully reopen the country, or the consequences could be devastating, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday.
US budget deficit climbs to record $2.81 trillion, August 12, 2020 (html) | Detroit News.
Unemployment benefits: More than half of Americans fear job losses, August 8, 2020 (html) | USA Today.
Some Previous United States (US) COVID-19 Negative Impacts
Poll: Most Americans say economy is in a recession or depression (html) – UPI.com
How private jet owners got a subsidy from coronavirus relief funds (html) | NBC News. By Stephanie Ruhle, Jonathan Allen and Michael Cappetta. Article illustrates one of the many ways the wealthiest Americans have benefited from programs to help workers.
- The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) agency admitted the real unemployment rate likely still exceeds 16%. The jobs report had a ‘misclassification error.’ Here’s what happened (html) – The Washington Post.
- Here’s why the real unemployment rate may be higher than reported (html) | CNBC.
- Curb your enthusiasm about the new unemployment numbers (html) | TheHill.
- President Donald Trump hails jobs report, but unemployment rate still high (html).
- This Bull Market Isn’t as Big as You Think (html) – WSJ.
- President Trump Touts Strong Jobs Report, Flubs Some Facts (html) – FactCheck.org.
- Coronavirus Threatens to Widen Racial, Ethnic Health Insurance Gaps (html) | Healthiest Communities | US News THE CORONAVIRUS pandemic leave many without health insurance and worsen already stark racial and ethnic divides in health care, experts warn.
- US coronavirus deaths: Over 1,000 reported in the past 24 hours (html) – CNN
- Coronavirus could hit US economy by $15.7 trillion, Congressional Budget Office projects (html) | The Independent. United States Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
- Despite reopening, some jobs lost to virus are gone for good (html) | AP News.
- Around 1.8M filed for first-time unemployment last week, continuing downward trend (html) | MSN. Around 1.8 million Americans filed for first-time jobless benefits last week, hinting that the worst could be over for the labor market.
- Another huge blow to US workers expected in May jobs report (html) | AP News. While some job numbers in Michigan show minor improvement, the economy has sunk into what looks like a deep recession, and most economists foresee unemployment remaining above 10% — its peak during the Great Recession — through the November elections and into next year.
- Labor Dept.: 1.9M more Americans have filed for unemployment (html) – UPI.com.
- During Coronavirus, the U.S. Safety Net Is Failing Workers (html) | Bloomberg.
- Finance Jobs in New York, NYC: Analysis Hints Recovery in 2026 (html) – Bloomberg. NYC’s Finance Jobs Won’t Recover for Six Years, Analysis Shows. Currrent predictions indicate that employment levels will be back to 2019 levels in approximately six years.
- Coronavirus Live Updates: Infections Spike and Wane Unevenly Across the U.S. (html) – The New York Times
- States, cities plead for virus aid as Congress faces crises (html) – ABC News. Counties across the nation are slashing sizable chunks of their government work force. States are staring down red ink as the fiscal year comes to a close.
- Virus leaves the US travel industry struggling to recover (html) – ABC News.
- Don’t Expect a Quick Recovery. Our Survey of Economists Says It Will Likely Take Years. (html) | FiveThirtyEight. Tthe recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is going to be a very, very lengthy process. The United States will see serious effects for years and years to come.
- What happens if there is a coronavirus recession and what can we expect? (html) – CNET.
- IRS Fails to Pursue Thousands of Rich Tax Cheats, Watchdog Says (html) – Bloomberg. IRS Is Letting Some of the Highest-Income Americans Get Away Without Paying Taxes (html) – Government Executive. The United States Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration found (pdf) high-income individuals owe a majority of the tax debt from that population. The Internal Revenue Service is struggling to address the high-income population due to a lack of prioritization and a significant reduction in staffing, the watchdog found. The agency has lost about one-fifth of its collection workforce, or about 2,000 employees.
- Why activists are pushing for rent forgiveness during the pandemic (html) | CNBC.
Instagram founders (Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger) launch COVID-19 spread tracker Rt.live (html) | TechCrunch. Rt: Effective Reproduction Number. Rt Covid-19 – These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
Wealthiest hospitals — including Providence Health System — got billions in bailout for struggling health providers (html) | The Seattle Times. Wealthiest Hospitals Got Billions in Coronavirus Bailout (html) – The New York Times. Twenty large hospital chains received more than $5 billion in federal grants even while sitting on more than $100 billion in cash.
- COVID-19 Accelerates Aircraft Retirements and Long-Term Storage (html) | Aviation Week Network.
- Boeing cutting more than 12,000 U.S. jobs with thousands more planned (html) – Reuters.
- American Airlines plans 30% reduction of management, administrative staff (html) | CNBC. American Airlines to Cut 30% of Management and Administrative Staff (html) – WSJ.
- EasyJet to cut workforce by 30% as coronavirus pandemic weighs (html) | CNBC. Coronavirus: EasyJet plans up to 4,500 job cuts (html) – BBC News. EasyJet to slash workforce by 30% (html) – CNN. EasyJet to slash workforce by 30% as it prepares for years of weak demand ahead.
- United cuts 13 execs as travel demand ‘a very long way from where it was’ (html) | CNBC. United and other airlines have been urging employees to take buyouts and other voluntary separation packages. United Airlines layoffs: Senior-executive cuts announced (html) | USA Today. Photo Gallery: Coronavirus: Airlines all over the world park planes as pandemic plays out.
- Why the Economy Is Headed for a Post-Coronavirus Depression (html) | NY Magazine. Economist Who Called the 2008 Crash Says We’re in for a Long Depression.
- Stock Bulls, Rallies, Stimulus and Federal Reserve: Latest Views (html) – Bloomberg. The Really Big Stock Bull Case Says Fed Stimulus Doesn’t Go Away. The Central Bank’s balance sheet has ballooned to $7 trillion, with roughly $3 trillion added in just three months — roughly triple what was added in the year following the financial crisis in 2008. Federal Reserve largess, alongside trillions of dollars in payouts from Washington, has been as a crucial element lifting stocks. Markets have become addicted to stimulus with no end in sight.
- An analysis by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (html) of more than a dozen models shows that the number of deaths will likely surpass previous record numbers by June 20. American virus deaths at hundreds of thousands: What does a number mean? (html) | AP News. 2019 Flu season killed 62k, SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 killed well over 100k in first five months!
- Coronavirus bankruptcy: Hertz, J Crew, among businesses who have filed (html) | USA Today. Bankruptcy cases, store closings pile up as coronavirus wreaks havoc for J.C. Penney, Hertz, many others. Fed: Sharp economic decline in May leaves businesses ‘pessimistic’ about recovery (html) | TheHill.
- The National Debt and How It Affects Investors (html) – The Street.
- Southwest Airlines Will Fly Again (html) | The Motley Fool – According to the TSA, air travel demand was down 92% in the first 18 days of May. Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), currently the most valuable U.S. carrier by market capitalization, has seen its stock fall 49% during the last three months as the coronavirus pandemic has essentially halted passenger air travel worldwide. Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) CEO Ed Bastian thinks it will be two or three years until business gets back to pre-coronavirus levels. American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) are also in financial trouble.
- Coronavirus: CDC quietly releases detailed guidelines for reopening US (html) | CNBC. Coronavirus US: CDC quietly releases state reopening guidance (html) | Daily Mail Online. CDC quietly releases detailed plan for reopening America (html) | NBC News.
- New Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report posted May 14, 2020: CDC Activities and Initiatives Supporting the COVID-19 Response and the President’s Plan for Opening America Up Again May 2020 (pdf).
- White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett: Unemployment rate could be ‘double digits’, 20% or higher in November (html) | TheHill.
- Global COVID-19 Risk Ranges Up to $82 Trillion. Nobody in the United States should underestimate the total global risk. Anyone who expects a fast recovery out of this mess is delusional (html).
- Another 4.4 million Americans file for unemployment, bringing pandemic total over 40 million (html) – CBS News.
- Job market remains grim even as U.S. tentatively reopens (html).
- United State Census Bureau New Household Pulse Survey (html) Shows Concern Over Food Security, Loss of Income (html). Among the population of adults 18 and over, 47% either lost employment income or another adult in their household had lost employment income. About 10% of adults reported that they did not get enough of the food they needed some of the time or often.
- Fed’s Powell says US economy faces ‘whole new level’ of uncertainty amid coronavirus pandemic (html) | Fox Business.
- The United States Federal Reserve (html) released “Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2019, Featuring Supplemental Data from April 2020: May 2020” (pdf) this week pointing out that 39% of households making under $40,000 a year lost at least one job in March alone.
- Welcome to the First Global Depression of Our Lifetimes (html) | Time– Unbelievable sight of people in the United States waiting in long lines to receive a food bank donation in 2020!
- ‘Jaw-Dropping’ Fraud Reported as Jobless Claims Reach 38.6 Million (html) – The New York Times. ‘Hundreds of millions’ in bogus jobless benefits paid out (html).
- New layoffs as states reopen a troubling sign for coronavirus recovery, experts say (html) | Fox News.
- American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic (html) | CNBC.
- Hertz Files For Bankruptcy After 16,000 Employees Were Let Go And CEO Made Over $9 Million (html) | Forbes – Hertz has notified 12,000 employees in North America that that they were losing their jobs, and another 4,000 are on furloughs. Its US workforce stood at 38,000 employees at the start of the year, with about a quarter of them represented by unions.
Previous Updates . . .
- Coronavirus peak: Is America ready for second wave in the fall? (html) | USA Today– Aftershock: If coronavirus swells in a second wave later this year, will the nation be ready?
- Millions of older Americans face food insecurity (html) – UPI.com
- Poll: 37% of unemployed Americans ran out of food in past month (html)
- Health insurance: Study shows nearly 27 million Americans may have lost job-based coverage (html).
- Lost Your Health Insurance Amid Coronavirus? Your Options (html) | Time.
- 3 million more US layoffs intensify fears of lasting damage (html) – ABC News.
- Fed warns of ‘significant’ financial vulnerabilities from pandemic (html) – Reuters – It is the latest signal from the Fed that the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will be a long & arduous journey.
The US Labor Department stated that the economy shed more than 20.5 million jobs in April, sending the unemployment rate to 14.7 percent — devastation unseen since the Great Depression. 33 Million Americans Filed for Unemployment Since Outbreak (html) | Time.
Economic News Releases (html): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Future Air Travel: Four-Hour Process, Self Check-In, Disinfection, Immunity Passes (html) – The new protocols and standards are being defined following feedback from associations representing the different travel sectors including International Air Transport Association (IATA), the Airport Council International (ACI), Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), United States Travel Association (USTA), Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Travel Commission (ETC), and the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).
3 Bitter Truths About Coronavirus Job Losses And The Economy (html) | Forbes – The Three Bitter Truths: Despite the rosy scenarios, research and data clearly indicate that (1) a huge portion of the job losses are indeed permanent; (2) the coronavirus recession—arguably a depression—will last much longer than many are prepared to admit; and (3) the unemployment numbers are actually higher than currently reported.
The bitter truth (reality) is that:
- 42% of all coronavirus job losses will be permanent.
- Coronavirus recession will last far longer than anyone will admit.
- unemployment is currently closer to 25% instead of 14.7%.
COVID-19 Recession: Affects on Health Insurance Coverage (html) (pdf) – RWJF– Twenty-five million workers or more could lose employer-based health insurance due to COVID-19-related unemployment. How the COVID-19 Recession Could Affect Health Insurance Coverage (html) (pdf) | Urban Institute.
Unemployment Numbers ‘Will Get Worse Before They Get Better’ Mnuchin Says : Coronavirus Live Updates (html) : NPR– The worst of the nation’s historic job losses are yet to come, according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who told Fox News Sunday that “the reported numbers are probably going to get worse before they get better.” White House considers more coronavirus aid as jobs picture worsens (html).
How Much Is a Human Life Actually Worth? (html) | WIRED – The NUMBERS are STAGGERING. On May 7,2020 2,231 Americans died of the disease Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths in the United States over 78,000, and more than 279,000 worldwide. Consumer spending, business investment, manufacturing—everything is in freefall, and it’s not likely to get better until 2021, even if the pandemic eases and doesn’t snap back with a second wave. (Pandemics tend to snap back with second waves—especially when social distancing ends too soon.)
The Bailout Is Working — For the Rich (html) — ProPublica. The economy is in free fall but Wall Street is thriving: The bailout is working — for the rich (html) – Raw Story. The economy is in free fall but Wall Street is thriving, and stocks of big private equity firms are soaring dramatically higher. That tells you who investors think is the real beneficiary of the federal government’s massive rescue efforts. This marks a period of unfathomable pain across the country not seen since the Great Depression. Many aspects of the coronavirus bailout that assist individuals or small businesses, meanwhile, are short-term or contingent. Aid to small businesses comes with conditions on what they can do with the money. The sums allocated by the CARES Act for stimulus and expanded unemployment insurance are vast by historical standards. But the relief they provide didn’t prevent tens of millions from losing their jobs. The assistance runs out in weeks, and the jobless live at the mercy of a divided Congress, which will decide whether that help gets extended and, if so, for how long.
Unemployment surged to 14.7% in April, highest since Great Depression, as coronavirus triggered 20.5 million job losses (html). Coronavirus pandemic could force half of small businesses to close within 6 months, study finds (html) | Fox Business.
April jobs report 2020: Unemployment surges after colossal layoffs in April (html) – Even as hospitals struggled to serve an influx in patients, health care workers suffered layoffs (html),with outpatient services like physicians and dentists’ offices cutting 1.2 million jobs in April.
The U.S. continues to lead the world in coronavirus deaths, with a daily average of 2,000 fatalities in April. And more than 134,000 COVID-19 deaths are projected by August 4, according to the University of Washington’s predictive model (html) used extensively by the White House (html).
State and local governments are hemorrhaging tax revenue, damaging their budgets, and their leaders are warning of layoffs and cuts to services they provide such as policing, other emergency response services and education as a result (html). U.S. states and local governments could need close to $1 trillion in aid over several years to cope with the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic (html).
The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) – State Aid to Local Government Update (html) – State aid plays a vital role to local governments—cities, towns, counties that need reliable revenues to deliver services, ranging from public safety to education to health and human services. In many cases this can amount to almost half of their local own-source general revenues.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) | Informing debates. Shaping policy. Producing results. New CBO Projections Suggest Even Bigger State Shortfalls (html) – State budget shortfalls from COVID-19’s economic fallout could total $650 billion over three years, we estimate based on new economic projections (html) from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). 2017 Federal Aid to State and Local Governments (pdf) – Michigan received Federal Grants totalling $22,874 (Millions) that amounted to a 41.9% share of State Spending.
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provides Assistance for State and Local Governments | U.S. Department of the Treasury (html) – more details on how the US Treasury Department is Taking Action on behalf of State and local governments.
Survey: Coronavirus Pandemic Causes Painful City Budget Shortfalls (html) | Cities | US News – Nearly 100% of cities with populations above 50,000 will experience revenue declines tied to the coronavirus, according to survey data (pdf) released jointly by the United States Conference of Mayors (html) and the National League of Cities (NLC). “Cities will have to make painful decisions that will affect real people’s lives and the safety and well-being of their communities if Congress does not help,” Rochester Hills (html), Michigan, Mayor Bryan Barnett, who is also the president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, said in a written statement.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021 (html). The CBO is currently anticipating an average unemployment rate of 14% for 2020:Q2. The numbers are again off the charts, higher than anything the U.S. has experienced since World War II.
The United States economy is shrinking and collapsing as never before (html). More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment. Millions of small businesses have requested forgivable loans to stay alive. And US GDP could decline at a breathtaking annualized rate of 40% during the second quarter. That’s why the Federal Reserve said (html) recently that the health crisis “poses considerable risks to the outlook over the medium term,” a period that Fed chief Jerome Powell defined as “the next year or so” (pdf).
“The worst of the unemployment crisis still lies ahead,” Joe Brusuelas (html), chief economist to the middle market at RSM (html), wrote in a report. “The distance between promise and reality for the working class of the economy has never been starker or more painful.”
The U.S. jobless figures brought the total of people filing for unemployment to 30 million in just six weeks. Other data showed consumer spending plunged a record 7.5% in March from the month before, a dire blow for an economy where such spending makes up 70% of the total.
Record 30 Million Americans File for Unemployment in Six Weeks Amid Coronavirus Outbreak (html); consumer spending slumps (html). Nearly 1 in 5 workers, almost 20%, who had a job in February have filed for unemployment since mid-March. Unfortunately, these figures understate how many people are currently jobless.
Hopes for a quick, V-shaped recovery are bleak, with many expecting the economic shock generated by the pandemic to stick with the U.S. – and the world – for years to come. The recovery will continue to be extremely painful for months to come, as businesses crippled by lack of sales struggle to reopen and possible next-waves of the virus result in further economic shutdowns and encompass more people than the entire population of Texas.
Bank of America CEO Says Economy Won’t Fully Rebound from Coronavirus Fallout Until ‘Late Next Year’ (2021) (html) – An economic analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which was published on Friday, suggested that unemployment could remain close to 10 percent by the end of 2021.
Nearly 4 million more Americans have filed for new unemployment claims, the Labor Department said in an update Thursday (html). The department said 3.8 million filed new claims for the week ending April 25. Ten million new claims were filed in the first two weeks of April alone and about 30 million have done so in the last six weeks.
Experts feel the Labor Department figures are likely lower than true unemployment numbers, since jobless systems in states like New York, New Jersey and Michigan have been overwhelmed by applicants. The United States Commerce Department also reported (html) the U.S. economy shrank by almost 5 percent over the first quarter, from the start of January to the end of March. Many financial analysts estimate 20% of small business loan recipients will go bankrupt soon.
Here are 10 takeaways from the worst jobs report in US history (html). No ‘V’-shape return from devastating U.S. job loss, Fed policymakers say (html) – The Fed has slashed interest rates to zero, bought trillions of dollars of bonds and extended credit to local governments and businesses in an effort to prevent financial markets from imploding and keep the economy from even worse devastation. The U.S. April jobs report clearly shows effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers across the country (html), Reuters Graphics (html).
AP Exclusive: Docs show top WH officials buried CDC report (html) – “Guidance for Implementing the Opening Up America Again Framework”. CDC Business Plans (html) (pdf). CDC Documents – Decision Trees (html) (pdf).
- The United State Department of Homeland Security (DHS) provides this essential worker advisory memo (pdf) along with 7 different categories of essential workers (pdf).
- To learn more about The Heroes Act, check out this brief fact sheet (pdf) that describes that $200 billion will be used to “ensure that essential workers who have risked their lives working during the pandemic receive hazard pay. Here is the full Heroes Act bill (pdf) that the United States House of Representatives passed recently.
- Internal Revenue Service (IRS) income limits for Federal stimulus checks (html). Also see United State Treasury news release about Social Security Recipients Will Automatically Receive Economic Impact Payments (html).
- A distinct possibility: ‘Temporary’ layoffs may be permanent (html).
- Opening Up America Again (html) | The White House (html).
- As U.S. jobless claims surged in March, some states lagged with payments (html).
- A devastating jobs report for April will show virus’s impact (html).
- As U.S. states start to reopen, Fed official sees little sign of economic resurgence (html).
- Great Depression-like U.S. job losses, unemployment rate expected in April (html).
- US weekly jobless claims total 3.169 million, seven-week tally hits 33.5 million (html).
- Millions more Americans file for jobless benefits; productivity tanks (html).
- Record government and corporate debt risks ‘tipping point’ after pandemic passes (html).
- States Burn Through Cash for Unemployment Payments (html).
- Battered states, cities struggling to pay bills (html).
- US weekly jobless claims total 3.169 million, seven-week tally hits 33.5 million (html).
- U.S. unemployment rolls seen swelling as coronavirus restrictions bite (html).
- ADP private payrolls April 2020 drop by record 20.2 million (html).