Cyclic 40 Year Aviation Demand

The Cyclic 40 Year Aviation Demand is nothing NEW to anyone in the Aviation, Aerospace & Defense industry!

The information contained here supports the premise that the MDOT – Michigan Department of Transportation Pilot Shortage Task Group Scam is truly a taxpayer scam based on the vast amount of information already available, and of course the whole issue is NOT a taxpayer or a State of Michigan ‘problem’.

MDOT Lead Poisoning Folly – Table of Contents

Here is a brief Table of Contents (ToC) for documenting the MDOT Lead Poisoning Folly  and the supporting Pages in an index-outline form to show that MDOT has consistently done and continues to do the wrong thing(s), even when the opportunity appears:

Tell MDOT to STOP poisoning our children with 100LL leaded aviation fuel NOW!
Tell Governor Whitmer to STOP MDOT from lead poisoning our children NOW!

Cyclic 40 Year Aviation Demand, the Details

It’s interesting to note that a recent Boeing [PressRelease] uses the phrase ‘Unprecedented Demand as Operators Face Pilot Supply Challenges’ versus ‘Shortage’ as a means of acknowledging supply and demand phraseology. Meaning that the supply can always be increased based on financial means which is in turn based on the level of demand, pretty simple really, follow the money! It should also be noted that the Boeing corporation believes and states that this is an Operator issue.

BTW: Boeing has been releasing the same study for many years as do General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), and many other organizations that truly study the state of their industry. Stats like these are nothing new and are common knowledge and well known in the aviation industry for many years!

What follows is a brief 40 Year Demand Timeline regarding aviation industry personnel Supply and Demand reinforcing the fact that to those in the aviation industry, this as a pretty regular course of Cyclic Aviation Demand phenomena. Of course, times have changed, and the mitigating circumstances are somewhat different, although still somewhat recognizable at the same time, but really it’s the same old story, follow the money, it always is.

Most of this information is readily available and easy to find. A typical intern or ‘new hire’ could find this information with very little trouble using basic aviation industry knowledge in under 40 hours, e.g. one work week.

A couple of other important things to NOTE:

  • Selected examples are only representative, certainly not an exhaustive, or a totally inclusive detailed search.
  • Increased demand also applies to job titles other than pilot, e.g. other professional aviation titles including Aircraft Dispatcher, Air Traffic Controller, Aviation Maintenance Technician, and Flight Attendant. For every single ‘aircraft’ and single ‘pilot’ there are many, many supporting personnel, like quarterbacks on a football team, but on a much grander scale. This is just common sense, more aircraft requires more people to manage the full lifecycle of those aircraft, airports, and other supporting aviation infrastructure in the overall ‘food chain’ of the aviation industry!
  • All of the research, and hand waving and wringing, is conducted by entities other than State Departments of Transportation, Counties, or similar bodies. The State of Michigan (SoM) seems to be the only State that has multiple highly paid expert industry consultants, Special Interests and Industry Lobbyists guiding a Department of Transportation (MDOT) ‘special commission’ to spend Taxpayer money to study a topic like this at all, go figure!

So, Is There Anything New Going On? Cyclical Pilot Demand Over the Last 40 Years – Is This Time Different?

NOTE: notice the use of the word “Demand”!

From a commercial aerospace perspective, there does not appear to be anything new or alarming in the last forty (40), yes count’ em, that’s 40 years!

The source for the above image:

Internal Southwest Airlines Pilots Association (SWAPA) Memo – Industry Pilot Demand (pdf), December 2017.

Internal Southwest Airlines Pilots Association (SWAPA) Memo –The Pilot Profession: Supply, Pay, and a Look Ahead to the Next Contract Cycle (pdf), March 2018.

Presented by Captain Hank Ketchum [LinkedIn], Chairman SWAPA Economic, Financial Analysis &  Industry Research Committee (EFARC), +1-214-722-4202,, Southwest Airlines Pilots Association (SWAPA),  [SWAPAFamily][FaceBook].

1965 – 2014 A Historical Perspective

The shortage of aviation personnel has been going for a very very long time as discussed in a Foreign Policy [FP] article What’s Driving the U.S. Air Force Pilot Shortage? [html], Dated May 4, 2018 states that shortages are nothing NEW and that:

  • The Air Force has suffered serious pilot shortages no fewer than six times since its founding in 1947 — in the early 1950s, the late 1960s, the late 1970s, the mid-1980s, the late 1990s, and the early 2000s, according to official records, experts, and news reports. This represents a historically well known, cyclical pattern of pilot overages and pilot shortages within the armed services.
  • If the Air Force pays more, trains more, and, as a result, can cut back on deployments — and waits — it might soon find itself with too many aviators.

From a historical perspective, in case MDOT hasn’t heard, there is nothing new under the sun!

1965 – Over Fifty Years Old – a Half a Decade Ago!

Pilot Shortages Ahead? : An Examination of the Compensation of Career Military Pilots as Contrasted to Commercial Aviation Airline Pilots (html)(pdf)(DTIC), Date: 1965-06-01 (Almost 53 years old), published by the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Dudley Knox Library (DKL). Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive, is the Naval Postgraduate School’s digital repository for research materials and institutional publications created by the NPS community. Materials in Calhoun are openly accessible to anyone on the web, and will be preserved for future generations. Materials such as NPS Theses and Dissertations can be found here.

Abstract: This paper makes a comparison of compensation of military pilots and their contemporaries who are employed as pilots for civil air carriers. It also examines pilot manpower requirements in commercial aviation and estimated future trends of such requirements in the industry. Both areas are studied from the viewpoint of a “composite” military pilot completing his initial period of obligated service after flight training.

1999 & 2000 – Almost two decades old

The U.S. Senate, 106th Congress, 1999 Congressional Hearing, by the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,  regarding The Impact Of Pilot Shortages On Air Service To Smaller And Rural Markets (html) (pdf).

A 2000 Rand research paper, The Air Force Pilot Shortage: A Crisis for Operational Units?   (html) (pdf) (DTIC html) (DTIC pdf):

Abstract: The United States Air Force is facing the largest peacetime pilot shortage in its history. This report examines the origin and nature of the shortage along with retention issues, and shows that the real problem is experience levels in operational units. It includes insight gained from RAND’s participation in the Rated Management Task Force (RMTF) convened by the Air Force Chief of Staff to define and study these issues.

2012 – Six Years Ago

A summer of 2012 paper, An Investigation of the United States Airline Pilot Labor Supply  (pdf), written by members of University of North Dakota (UND), University of Nebraska Omaha (UNO), Embry Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), Southern Illinois University (SIU), LeTourneau UniversityUniversity Aviation Association, Middle Tennessee State University (MTSU) – Aviation Accreditation Board International (AABI), with contributions by Delta Air LinesExpressJet, United Airlines, and the Regional Airline Association (RAA) an Industry Lobbyist group, concluded that:

It is not likely that major airlines will experience any disruption in the pilot labor supply within the next five to seven years.  The more likely impact will occur with the regional airlines.  As a consequence, the regional airlines will have to actively compete for a shrinking pool of qualified pilots. While this will create increased opportunities for new pilots to enter the industry, it is not clear whether all the Regional Airlines will be successful in attracting an adequate number of qualified applicants.

A 15 June 2012 paper, Predicting Pilot Retention (html) (pdf) done at Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT)[wikipedia][AF][FL][NPS-AFIT][Wright-Patterson Afb][wikipedia], Graduate School Of Engineering And Management (GSEM):

Abstract : The research problem is to determine if it is possible to predict future pilot retention based on factors internal and external to the Air Force to determine if there is a potential future shortage. Specifically, this research sought to answer three research questions about how future pilot inventories are forecast, determining if there are factors that may predict retention habits, and finally if a model can be formulated using those factors that would help predict pilot retention. This study will be focused towards the Air Staff and OSD to illustrate potential manning shortfalls as well as hopefully identifying factors that may alleviate those risks. This study focused solely on pilots and only look ten years out for requirements since the current ADSC for initial pilot training is ten years. Research indicated that the USAF does not use external factors that have proven to be significant in predicting pilot retention. This research created a formula for predicting pilot retention that can be used by senior policy members to better forecast retention behavior in order to shape force management more effectively.

ALPA 2012 Comparison

From 2012, A Disparity of Wages – The chart above illustrates the entry-level pay for several professions in the U.S. At the time ALPA stated that there is no pilot shortage, instead only a shortage of qualified pilots who are willing to fly for sub-standard wages and inadequate benefits, Thousands of U.S. pilots now fly for foreign airlines because many of those airlines’ stability, pay, and benefits are much greater than those offered by many U.S. airlines. To learn more about current circumstances visit [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Handbook (OOH) (May 2012), ALPA E&FA].

2013 – 5 Years Ago

A National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) presentation at the NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition held in Las Vegas from October 22, 23, 24 2013, The Perfect Storm: Continuing to Address the Declining Talent Pool (pdf), dated October 21, 2013.

Short Supply– a Flight Safety Foundation article dated, July 1, 2013 stated that:

Despite frequent warnings, an actual shortage of airline pilots would be the first since the 1960s! There are many reasons coupled with high demand and a shrinking supply pool.

2014 – Four Years Ago

The U.S. GAO – Aviation Workforce: Current and Future Availability of Airline Pilots (html)(pdf)(pdf 1 page), published Feb 28, 2014, found that:

GAO found mixed evidence regarding the extent of a shortage of airline pilots, although regional airlines have reported difficulties finding sufficient numbers of qualified pilots over the past year. Airlines are taking several actions to attract and retain qualified commercial airline pilots. For example, airlines that GAO interviewed have increased recruiting efforts, and developed partnerships with schools to provide incentives and clearer career paths for new pilots. Some regional airlines have offered new first officers signing bonuses or tuition reimbursement to attract more pilots. However, some airlines found these actions insufficient to attract more pilots, and some actions, such as raising wages, have associated costs that have implications for the industry. Airline representatives and pilot schools suggested FAA could do more to give credit for various kinds of flight experience in order to meet the higher flight-hour requirement, and could consider developing alternative pathways to becoming an airline pilot.

The ALPA Issue Analysis, a publication of ALPA, regarding the GAO Report on Pilot Availability Confirms that It’s All about the Money (pdf), the Air Line Pilots Association International (ALPA), February 28, 2014, states that:

The GAO report (GAO-14-232) “Aviation Workforce—Current and Future Availability of Airline Pilots,” supports the points that ALPA has made for several years concerning whether there is, or will be, a genuine shortage of airline pilots. To put it very simply, currently there is no shortage of qualified pilots. There is, however, a shortage of qualified pilots willing to fly for substandard wages and inadequate benefits. The recent increases in experience required to enter the airline pilot profession, which were crafted with input from industry, labor and government, were made to ensure that the United States airline industry remains the safest in the world. We will not sacrifice safety to enable the airlines to hire a cheap work force. [ALPA][ALPA-About the money][ALPA-Myth]

A 2014 presentation, Predicted Pilot Demand (pdf), by Dr. Ken Byrnes, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU).

A Regional Airline Association (RAA), an Industry Lobbyist group, White Paper dated March 19, 2014 for May 2014 distribution, titled U.S. Regional Airlines Facing Shortage of Qualified Pilots: Action Needed to Prevent Service Cuts and Reductions Nationwide (pdf).

2015 – 2018 Current Updates and References

Here is a more current view, 3-4 years, of what Aerospace & Defense industry experts and analysts are saying.

2015 – Three Years Ago

An FAA document regarding Pilot Fitness Aviation Rulemaking Committee Report (pdf), regarding recent legislation, dated November 18, 2015.

An oft referenced Rand study, Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation (html) (pdf). The recent legislation is the FAA reference right above.

Abstract: Many airline industry experts have recently predicted crippling shortages in the supply of Airline Transport Pilots. The main reasons for concern in the United States over pilot shortages arises from recent legislation stemming from the 2009 Colgan air crash, an impending wave of mandatory retirements, a decreasing supply of new professional pilots into the pipeline, and major airline expansion. This study provides a comprehensive Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) supply and demand model and then assesses the current and future ATP supply and demand pipeline, to include the impact on the U.S. military pilot population. Subsequently, it evaluates policy options available to government, industry, and the military to mitigate any potential shortfalls in the future supply chain.

This study finds there will NOT be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained. Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots. All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide. Barring any policy changes, the military will experience an inventory shortage in the near-term.

Another Naval Post Graduate study, dated June 2015, The career cost: does it pay for a military pilot to leave the service for the airlines? (html) (pdf).

Abstract: The military is experiencing a pilot retention problem that is getting worse. The government spends millions of dollars training pilots in the most advanced aircraft in the world, only to watch them leave for the commercial airline industry at the first opportunity. As airline pilot hiring continues to improve, military pilots will depart the services for the assumed increase in financial compensation of the airlines. This thesis compares two scenarios: one in which a military pilot leaves the service to become a commercial airline pilot upon completing the initial active duty service obligation (ADSO), and one in which a military pilot defers becoming a commercial airline pilot until after reaching military retirement eligibility. The comparison is made by calculating lifetime income cash flows of both scenarios, and then discounting them to achieve a net present value (NPV). The findings conclude it is financially prudent for military pilots to remain in the service until retirement. The current policies enable a retired military pilot to earn over 9% more in NPV when compared to the military pilot who separates at ADSO completion. Military pilots who voluntarily separate prior to retirement for financial reasons are incorrectly evaluating the assumed pay disparity between the airlines and the military.

2016 – Two Years Ago

A Garmin International presentation, dated March 8, 2016, by Noel Duerksen, Ph.D., ATP, CFII, MEI, The Current State of the Pilot Population and What Can We Do to Save It? (pdf), presented at the NASA ODM / SVO Conference (html) Arlington, Va.:

Source: Garmin Industry presentation, references: AOPA Growing the Pilot Population Initiatives [JetWhine][AOPA Flight Training Initiative][AOPA Flight Training Experience pdf][AOPA You Can Fly], GAMA 2013 Datebook, [PlaneAndPilot]

Source: Garmin Industry presentation, references: GAMA 2013 Databook.

Another Naval Post Graduate study, dated June 2016, The impact of commercial aviation on naval aviation (html) (pdf) (DTIC html)(DTIC pdf).

Abstract: For the first time in over 15 years, commercial airlines are hiring large numbers of pilots and threatening retention rates for naval aviation. One major concern for Navy leadership is if there is a major difference in compensation for aviators who transition to the airlines after 10 years when compared to aviators who make that transition after retirement. The other concern is how the new blended retirement plan will impact compensation and ultimately retention. Using net present value, this research discounted career earnings back to the point at which a naval aviator chooses to stay in the service or seek commercial employment. It was revealed that aviators who decide to leave the service after 10 years stand to earn significantly more money than those who remain until retirement. Aviation Career Continuation Pay was analyzed and alternate payment plans were studied to provide options for the Navy to shrink the gap in compensation. Ultimately, if the Navy is willing to spend more money on compensation, they can close the compensation gap and hopefully prevent future retention problems.

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering (JATE) 6:1 (2016) 53–63, Airline Pilot Supply in the US: Factors Influencing the Collegiate Pilot Pipeline (pdf). Available from Purdue University Libraries e-Pubs [PurdueAviation].

A July 12, 2016 Rand news release, Commercial Airlines May Siphon Pilots From U.S. Air Force, Creating Shortage of Military Aviators (html).

A 2016 Rand research study, Retaining U.S. Air Force Pilots When the Civilian Demand for Pilots Is Growing (html) (pdf).

2017 – One Year Ago

An 2017 ERAU paper, The Relationship Between Motivation and Job Preferences in Commercial Aviation Graduates (html)(pdf).

Abstract: How can a regional airline attract a new hire pilot to work for their company? This question is being asked more frequently now that qualified pilots are scarce. The aviation industry cycles between times of disparity and times of prosperity. In periods of disparity, entry-level pilots seeking work with a company may not have a job offer for years on end, while in times of prosperity, new pilots have the option to choose which airline they would like to work for. Once given the option to choose, it is often difficult to predict how applicants will make their decision on which company to work with. Given the cyclical nature of regional airline pilot hiring, little formal research has been conducted on determining how job applicants choose a particular airline to work for. The present research merges motivational research with pilot hiring research to provide insight into how newly qualified pilots choose their future employer. What follows is a discussion of the relevant motivational and pilot hiring research to present the basis of the present study.

A U.S. House of Representatives, Congressional Hearing, for the 115thCongress, dated March 29, 2017, titled: Military Pilot Shortage (html)(pdf).

A U.S. Senate, Congressional Hearings, for the 115thCongress, dated April 6, 2017, titled FAA Reauthorization: Perspectives On Rural Air Service And The General Aviation Community (html)(pdf).

A National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS), Transportation Research Board (TRB), Airport Cooperative Research Project (ACRP), Project # ACRP 06-04, dated9/15/2017, titled Identifying and Evaluating Airport Workforce Requirements(Phase I html) (Phase I pdf) (Phase II html) (Phase II pdf).

Additionally, the ACRP community expressed the concerns in the ACRP Problem Statement:  16-03-13, Recommended Allocation: $350,000, titled Is There an Adequate Pipeline of Pilots to Meet the Increasing Needs of Airports and the Communities They Serve? (pdf). The ACRP community expressed concern that a pilot shortage issue should be addressed by the airline, operator industry, and industry (Special Interest & Industry Lobbyist) associations directly concerned with workforce hiring. This study was proposed by the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE) [GLCAAAE] Airline Economics and Air Service Committee (AEASE) members. The mission of the Air Service Committee is to monitor and coordinate all activities of AAAE regarding the impact of airline economics on airport management and air service competition issues.

We couldn’t agree more there should NOT be a State of Michigan funded special commissions or any study paid for by the State of Michigan taxpayer whatsoever!

Calculating the Cost of Pilot Turnover, [html][pdf][pdf][JAEER], Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research, 27(1)., from Volume 27, Number 1 2017 NTAS Conference Selected Articles [2017 papers] [2018 papers]. The research discusses the case study of a Part 135 cargo operator showed that the turnover rate for pilots was 46%, compared to the average across all jobs and all industries of 15%. Pilot turnover costs for the carrier were shown to be $17,405, compared to the average across all jobs and all industries of $13,996. Per capita turnover costs for the carrier represent 43% of the average pilot’s salary of $40,000. This information can be used by airlinesto make cost benefit judgments about retention efforts.

2018 – Current Situation and Circumstances

The sheer volume of existing information available is astonishing. The following examples are just a few random selections and are NOT meant to exhaustive.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) study Collegiate Aviation Schools: Stakeholders’ Views on Challenges for Initial Pilot Training Programs, GAO-18-403 (pdf)(highlight): Published: May 15, 2018. Publicly Released: May 15, 2018, was performed to further address concerns regarding the airline pilot supply (GAO-14-232) , the GAO looked at one pathway for aspiring pilots: colleges and universities offering professional pilot degree programs. The GAO identified 147 such schools.

Nearly all of the school representatives interviewed said that recruiting and retaining flight instructors and students was a challenge. They said that they often lost instructors to airline employment and cited student program costs as a disincentive, with training fees often exceeding $50,000 on top of tuition. Schools have raised instructor pay and airlines have offered tuition reimbursement, among other steps to address these challenges.

The Heritage Foundation No. 4854 | May 18, 2018, Sharing the Skies: Liberalizing Flight-Sharing in the United States (html) (pdf), provides these key takeaways:

  • The FAA arbitrarily ended the nascent online flight-sharing market although the law allowed the activity: private pilots carrying cost-sharing passengers.
  • The FAA’s prohibition on flight-sharing is unjustified, and it prohibits the delivery of many economic benefits to the aviation industry.
  • The Aviation Empowerment Act would enable innovative flight-sharing arrangements, increase economic opportunity, and bring regulatory certainty to the industry.

Many feel that the U.S. should Legalize flight-sharing: Europe did it and so can we [USAToday]. So instead of chasing off American innovators, by embracing flight-sharing companies, U.S. lawmakers can make flights accessible to rural citizens, helping to alleviate rural pilot demand among other things.

Performed as part of the RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), the paper Supplemental Career Paths for Air Force Pilots: A Warrant Officer Component or an Aviation Technical Track?, [html] [pdf] dated May 25, 2018 documents analyses to help the U.S. Air Force Director of Military Force Management Policy respond to a request from congressional staff to consider reimplementation of a warrant officer (WO) program in the Air Force, specifically to fill pilot requirements, or an alternative, an aviation technical track (ATT) for commissioned officers (COs).

A recent AirForce Times (AFTarticle dated May 31, 2018 believes that having Warrant officer pilots would hurt retention in the Air Force — but a flying-only track might help. Additionally, retention bonuses are spiking for a lot of Air Force pilots — some pilots could get up to $420K? The U.S. Air Force Air Mobility Command (AMC) [Facebook][Twitter][Wikipedia] pushes for an aviation-only career track.

The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. They publish many useful papers and studies related to pilot demand too numerous to list such as:

  • Evaluating the Impact of a Total Force Service Commitment Policy on Air Force Pilot Manning: An Exploratory Application of Inventory Modeling [html[pdf].
  • Building a Healthy MQ-1/9 Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) Pilot Community: Designing a Career Field Planning Tool [html] [pdf]
  • etc.

A Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) resource AD1051136, Avoiding a Pilot Retention Death Spiral: The Pilot Shortage and DOD’s Challenge to Maintain an Effective Fighting Force [html] [pdf], dated 09 Apr 2018, published at the National Defense University (NDU)[wikipedia][gov], Norfolk, VA. Joint Forces Staff College (JFSC) discusses how the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) faces a pilot shortage. Examination of the current pilot shortage reveals that external pressure from commercial aviation, changes in Congress, legislation, and internal DOD actions exacerbate existing problems within the DOD aviation recruitment and retention programs.

Commercial pilot retirements combined with a growing global economy create significant pilot shortages and ample opportunity for military pilots to leave the service. Congressional failure to pass on-time budgets and provide fiscal certainty undermine DOD attempts to retain pilots by forcing DOD to make compromises that negatively affect pay, readiness, quality of life, quality of service, and focus on the mission. The current conditions encourage commercial airlines to benefit from the military investment, while budget limitations force DOD to make choices between systems and personnel, and Congress fails to provide long-term strategic guidance that would alleviate stresses on the system. Without adjustments, the current system will prove unsustainable and without benefit to any stakeholder over the next decade.

The Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research [JAAER], 27(1), Volume, 27, Issue 1, article Pilot Supply at the Regional Airlines: Airline Response to the Changing Environment and the Impact on Pilot Hiring[html] [JAEER] [doi] (pdf) (pdf), by Becky Lutte [bio], PhD, MEI, University of Nebraska at Omaha Aviation Institute (UNOAI), discusses Regional airlines facing pilot supply challenges have responded to the rapidly changing environment by increasing pay, adjusting lifestyle factors, and enhancing career pathway opportunities. The purpose of this research is to provide a current view of the status of airline hiring at regional airlines, given the changes in pay and other factors, and to explore the impact of increased pay on the airlines’ ability to meet hiring goals.

Many more related papers available at National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS) [2017 papers] [2018 papers].

Another U.S. GAO study – GAO-18-439 [pdf] [1 page pdf] Military Personnel: Collecting Additional Data Could Enhance Pilot Retention Efforts, dated Jun 21, 2018, discusses the fact that military pilots perform an array of national security operations, such as combat missions and reconnaissance. Consequently, retaining qualified pilots is important—both to fulfill missions and to recoup the substantial investments of time and money needed to train military pilots.

The GAO found that the Air Force, the Navy, and the Marine Corps all had staffing gaps for certain types of pilots during FYs 2013-2017. And these services also lacked information about post-service employment for pilots, such as the number that left the military for commercial airlines. The GAO recommended collecting specifc data to improve efforts to retain military pilots.

A Foreign Policy [FP] article What’s Driving the U.S. Air Force Pilot Shortage? [html], Dated May 4, 2018 states that shortages are nothing NEW and that:

  • The Air Force has suffered serious pilot shortages no fewer than six times since its founding in 1947 — in the early 1950s, the late 1960s, the late 1970s, the mid-1980s, the late 1990s, and the early 2000s, according to official records, experts, and news reports. This represents a historically well known, cyclical pattern of pilot overages and pilot shortages within the armed services.
  • If the Air Force pays more, trains more, and, as a result, can cut back on deployments — and waits — it might soon find itself with too many aviators.

NOTE: this is a military or airline operator problem, NOT a State of Michigan or Taxpayer problem, but you get the point!

Take Action to Protect PCCS Schools & Canton Plymouth Community from Lead Poisoning & Chemical contamination: by making as many calls, sending as many emails, to as many recipients on the Contacts page to demand closure of the State of Michigan Owned Hobby, Sport, Recreational Canton Plymouth Mettetal 1d2 airstrip.

While financial considerations are secondary to protecting Health, Safety, & Welfare of vulnerable populations, there is a also mandatory requirement to reorganize MDOT to remove the stranglehold of the MDOT bureaucracy on infrastructure essential to the Future of Michigan and place control back in the hands of Taxpayers and their elected officials!

The Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOTBureaucracy, as with all public servants, must abide by the highest standards of the State of Michigan (SoM) set forth by Governor Whitmer [PressRelease] [html] [pdf] [Ethics] and be held accountable for knowingly remaining silent (acquiesce) while contributing to the sum of Community Health, Safety, & Welfare negligence & malpractice, financial waste, misuse of taxpayer funds and the consequences of public funding abuse (html)!

References and Other Useful Information

Supporting State of Michigan (SoM) Reference Documents:

  • MDOT Fast Facts 2018, dated January 1, 2018 (pdf).
  • MDOT Aviation in Michigan (pdf) – How Aviation in Michigan Works.
  • Michigan Aviation System Plan (MASP) 2017 (pdf) by MDOT – Planning & Development (html), Executive Summary (pdf).
  • MCL, Chapter 259. Aviation, Aeronautics Code Of The State Of Michigan Act 327 of 1945 (html) (pdf).
  • Canton Plymouth Mettetal 1d2 Minimum Standards for Commercial Operations, April 1, 2015 (pdf).
  • Canton Plymouth Mettetal 1d2 Rules and Regulations, October 13, 1994  (pdf).
  • Canton Plymouth Mettetal 1d2 Noise Abatement Procedure (NAP), (Not dated, but then again nobody respects it now or ever has!) (pdf).

Michigan Business Aviation Association (MBAA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia].

National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) Business Aviation Fact Book 2018 (pdf) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia].

Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC) [LinkedIn] [Forbes] [FAA 2000] [2018 Pipeline Report (html) (pdf) (PressRelease)].

Oliver Wyman – Airline Economic Analysis 2017-2018 (html) (pdf)
Oliver Wyman – MRO Survey 2017: When Growth Outpaces Capacity (html) (pdf)

Aeronautical Repair Station Association (ARSA) – Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Commentary 2018–2028 (html) (pdf) (summary pdf).

Airbus – Global Market Forecast 2018-2037 (html) (xlsx) (ppt pdf) (book pdf)
Airbus – 20-year helicopter civil market forecast – October 2017 (pdf)
Airbus – Airbus Helicopters 2017 annual results (pdf)

General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) – Statistical Databook and Industry Outlook [html] [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia]. 2016 General Aviation Statistical Databook & 2017 Industry Outlook (pdf). 2017 GAMA Annual Report (pdf).

General aviation trends in 12 charts | Air Facts Journal (html).

International Air Transport Association (IATA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia]. IATA Future of The Airline Industry 2035 (2018 Edition) (pdf). IATA Annual Review 2018 (pdf). IATA Annual Review 2017 (pdf). IATA Safety Report 2017, Issued April 2018 (pdf).

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia].

An Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube] [FederalRegister] [TRB] news update (html) describes the release of the FAA Aerospace Forecast (html). The FAA Aerospace Forecast 2018-38 (pdf) is developed to support budget and planning needs of the FAA. The forecasts are developed using statistical models to explain and incorporate emerging trends of the different segments of the aviation industry. This year’s document contains updated forecasts for US airline traffic and capacity, FAA workload, General Aviation activity and pilots, as well as Commercial Space and Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) fleet and remote pilots. There is also an FAA Fact Sheet (html) summarizing the Forecast Fiscal Years (FY) 2017-2038. The FAA Administrator’s Fact Book (PDF), dated December 2018 discusses the fact that American commercial air travelers are experiencing the highest levels of safety in modern aviation history.

Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube] [Bloomberg], AIA Reports (html), AIA Aviation Benefits 2017 (pdf), AIA 2018 Facts and Figures – U.S.  Aerospace and Defense (pdf), AIA 2017 Facts and Figures – U.S.  Aerospace and Defense (pdf), AIA Awesome Aerospace Jobs, February 8, 2018 (pdf)

International Coordinating Council of Aerospace Industries Associations (ICCAIA) – presently has six member associations. Member companies of these associations, some of which are members of multiple associations, include aircraft manufacturers, engine manufacturers, ground and space systems manufacturers, avionics and aircraft parts manufacturers, and international suppliers of components including:

  • Aerospace and Defence Industries Association of Europe (ASD)
  • Aerospace Industries Association of America (AIA)
  • Aerospace Industries Association of Brazil (AIAB)
  • Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC)
  • Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies (SJAC)
  • Union of Aviation Industrialists (UAI)

Regional Airline Association  (RAA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube][Publications] [RAA Annual Report 2017] [RAA Annual Report 2018]

International Aviation Womens Association (IAWA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube]

National Air Transportation Association (NATA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube]

Association of Flight Attendants-CWA (AFACWA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube] [Bloomberg]

AFA-CWA Air Safety, Health and Security Department (ASHSD)

Wayne County Airport Authority (WCAA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube] [] [Bloomberg]

American Center for Mobility (ACM) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube] [Ann Arbor Spark] [ytown] [MDOT ACM Facebook]

Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube]

Experimental Aircraft Association (EAA) [Facebook] [Instagram] [LinkedIn] [Twitter] [Wikipedia] [Youtube]